His HDSV% in the prior two seasons still ranked 40th out of 69 goaltenders, so Campbell does struggle with high-danger shots. Furthermore, Campbell had a 0.786 HDSV% (high-danger save percentage) in 21-22, ranking fifth last in the league. It’s also worth mentioning that he’s yet to play fifty games in a season. With that said, Smith was the statistically superior goaltender in the past two seasons by a solid margin, based on both raw SV% and GSAx.Īs stated previously, Campbell’s results are dragged down by an injury-riddled stretch, but nevertheless, his play remains inconsistent. Smith and Campbell possess various similarities, as they’re both injury-prone and inconsistent. Skinner will likely progress next season, and he’s an upgrade on Koskinen. So, with all of this in mind, is Campbell / Skinner an upgrade over the past performances of Smith / Koskinen? To dive deeper into Campbell’s results, here’s a glance at his year-by-year metrics These aren’t the most appealing results for a starter. For comparison, publically available GSAx places Campbell 33rd among the 65 goalies that faced 1000 shots in the past two seasons. Per Kevin Woodley of InGoal Magazine, who has access to these private metrics, Campbell’s team-adjusted SV% ranked around ~30-39th among all goaltenders. However, proprietary statistics (that numerous NHL teams and GMs frequently utilize) have a similar stance on Campbell. In fairness, public GSAx does contain some flaws, and it’s understandable if you’re somewhat wary or uncertain about this metric. In the regular-season, Toronto’s defence has been strong, allowing for Campbell’s raw SV% to rank favorably, but relative to his workload, he’s been slightly below-average. Moving onto newly-signed Jack Campbell, his save percentage is satisfactory, but his GSAx is a net negative. On the other hand, Koskinen’s results have been disappointing.Īs for Stuart Skinner, he was an above-average goaltender in the games he played in 2021-22, and it’s reasonable to expect him to perform as a reliable backup this upcoming season. Of course, the primary issue with Smith was his wild inconsistency. He’s saved nearly fourteen goals more than expected, and his raw SV% of 0.919 is quite strong. Whichever way you look at Smith’s regular-season results, they’ve been splendid. GSAx incorporates shot quality, and although it isn’t perfect in any sense, it’s a superior evaluation tool as opposed to SV%. My issue with SV% is that it considers all shots as equal, and doesn’t adjust for team defence, meaning a weak point shot is equivalent to a breakaway. Note: I place more emphasis on GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) over raw save-percentage. Here’s a comparison of each goaltender’s results, in the past two years: Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner are projected to be their goaltending tandem in 2022-23. *All microstats via Corey Sznajder, all other stats via EvolvingHockey and Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise How reliable can a tandem of Campbell and Skinner be?įor the past three seasons, Edmonton’s goaltending duo consisted of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen. So, with the moves made thus far, have they improved defensively? Should the Oilers feel satisfied with their defensive core and goaltending tandem? In this piece, I’ll attempt to answer these questions, and suggest some reasonable expectations heading into the 2022-23 season. It was the main factor that held them back from a chance at the Stanley Cup, as Colorado scored 22 goals in their four-game sweep against Edmonton. They placed at an awful 3.3 goals against per hour.Įdmonton’s major issue against Colorado in the conference finals wasn’t scoring goals it was preventing them. Of course, they improved subsequent to the hirings of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, but in the postseason, no team allowed 5v5 goals at a higher rate than the Oilers. In the regular season, Edmonton ranked 19th in the league in 5v5 goals against and 21st in 5v5 expected goals against. However, the larger question heading into this off-season was Edmonton’s defensive capabilities and goaltending. In the 2022 postseason, Edmonton ranked first in 5v5 goals per hour offence certainly isn’t a concern. Adding another forward would further enhance their offensive potential, but they remain a quality offensive team either way. Their forward core is quite similar to what they deployed last season, apart from the departures of Zack Kassian and Josh Archibald, who were ineffective fourth-liners that Edmonton needed to move on from.
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